Late loan payments and as a result, an increasing number of defaults on all sorts of loans in the future, are major problems spreading from home payments and the prospect of ever-increasing mortgage foreclosures, to automobile loans and home equity loans. See Jeannine Aversa, "Late Loan Payments Jump" p. C3, col. 1 (Associated Press Report published in The Orlando Sentinel, Central Florida Business, Fri., January 4, 2008). Claims on Mortgage Insurance Policies are very likely to become increasingly greater as real estate foreclosures increase. Credit Insurance Policies of all types increasingly seem subject to the same likely fate.
The United States economy is also producing fewer jobs of any kind than in recent months, while the unemployment rate is increasing. These twin factors have a potentially huge impact on future Insurance Claims. The latest jobs numbers at the time of this post are for the month just past which at this time is December, 2007 and those numbers are, respectively, 18,000 newly made jobs of any kind, with a simultaneous unemployment rate reported at 5%. See Peter S. Goodman & Michael M. Grynbaum, "Unemployment Sounds Warning About Economy" p. A1, col. 6 (New York Times Nat'l Ed., Sat., January 5, 2008):
As fewer jobs are created, spending power could dry up. Faced with declining business, employers could further trim payrolls. As unemployment grows, more homeowners could fall behind on mortgages, leading to more losses at banks, and more layoffs.
The overall figure of 18,000 newly made jobs masks a major increase of 93,000 jobs in the service industries, including the Insurance industry. See "U.S. Economy: Job Growth at Weakest Pace Since 2003 (Update 3)" by Bob Willis & Joe Richter (Bloomberg.com, Fri., January 4, 2008). (Payroll counts are apparently decreased by job losses, such as a reported December decrease of 31,000 in factory payrolls reported in the same article, thus leading to an overall payroll increase of 18,000 in December.)
Take out the take by the American Bankers Association on these developments. That ABA (not referring to the American Bar Association, the other ABA if you will) sponsors insurance products for its members, including automatic mutual ownership of a Reinsurance Corporation for various Lines of Insurance including Directors and Officers Liability Insurance, Financial Bond Insurance, and Employment Practices Liability Insurance. Its views on these developments are thus instructive on Insurance implications.
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